Air Force Reusable Booster System: A Quick-look, Design Focused Modeling and Cost Analysis Study

This paper presents a method and an initial analysis of the costs of a reusable booster system (RBS) as envisioned by the US Department of Defense (DoD) and numerous initiatives that form the concept of Operationally Responsive Space (ORS). This paper leverages the knowledge gained from decades of experience with the semi-reusable NASA Space Shuttle to understand how the costs of a military next generation semi-reusable space transport might behave in the real world - and how it might be made as affordable as desired. The NASA Space Shuttle had a semi-expendable booster, that being the reusable Solid Rocket MotorslBoosters (SRMlSRB) and the expendable cryogenic External Tank (ET), with a reusable cargo and crew capable orbiter. This paper will explore DoD concepts that invert this architectural arrangement, using a reusable booster plane that flies back to base soon after launch, with the in-space elements of the launch system being the expendable portions. Cost estimating in the earliest stages of any potential, large scale program has limited usefulness. As a result, the emphasis here is on developing an approach, a structure, and the basic concepts that could continue to be matured as the program gains knowledge. Where cost estimates are provided, these results by necessity carry many caveats and assumptions, and this analysis becomes more about ways in which drivers of costs for diverse scenarios can be better understood. The paper is informed throughout with a design-for-cost philosophy whereby the design and technology features of the proposed RBS (who and what, the "architecture") are taken as linked at the hip to a desire to perform a certain mission (where and when), and together these inform the cost, responsiveness, performance and sustainability (how) of the system. Concepts for developing, acquiring, producing or operating the system will be shown for their inextricable relationship to the "architecture" of the system, and how these too relate to costs. Design and technology features bear special relevance to early program research and development directions. Given the uncertainties involved in both their actual performance promise and their relation to costs of operational systems, this later relationship is also given special attention

Technical Paper Session I-B - The NASA Human Space Flight Supply Chain, Current and Future

The current NASA Human Space Flight transportation system, the Space Shuttle, is scheduled for final flight in 2010. The Exploration initiative will create a new capability with a combination of existing systems and new flight and ground elements. To fully understand and act on the implications of such change it is necessary to understand what, how, when and where such changes occur and more importantly, how all these interact. This paper presents Human Space Flight, with an emphasis on KSC Launch and Landing, as a Supply Chain of both information and materials. A supply chain methodology for understanding the flow of information and materials is presented. Further, modeling and simulation projects funded by the Exploration initiative to understand the NASA Exploration Supply Chain are explained. Key concepts and their purpose, including the Enterprise, Locations, Physical and Organizational Functional Units, Products, and Resources, are explained. It is shown that the art, science and perspective of Supply Chain Management is not only applicable to such a government & contractor operation, it is also an invaluable approach for understanding, focusing improvement and growth. It is shown that such commercial practice applies to Human Space Flight and is invaluable towards one day creating routine, affordable access to and from space

Paper Session I-C - Reusable Launch Vehicle Certification

This paper will discuss the flight certification of the next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). It will define certification as currently understood, as it will be required in the future, the difference between these two, and what this difference means for the next generation systems design

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here

The State of Play US Space Systems Competitiveness: Prices, Productivity, and Other Measures of Launchers & Spacecraft

Collects space systems cost and related data (flight rate, payload, etc.) over time. Gathers only public data. Non-recurring and recurring. Minimal data processing. Graph, visualize, add context. Focus on US space systems competitiveness. Keep fresh update as data arises, launches occur, etc. Keep fresh focus on recent data, indicative of the future

The NASA Human Space Flight Supply Chain, Current and Future

The current NASA Human Space Flight transportation system, the Space Shuttle, is scheduled for final flight in 2010. The Exploration initiative will create a new capability with a combination of existing systems and new flight and ground elements. To fully understand and act on the implications of such change it is necessary to understand what, how, when and where such changes occur and more importantly, how all these interact. This paper presents Human Space Flight, with an emphasis on KSC Launch and Landing, as a Supply Chain of both information and materials. A supply chain methodology for understanding the flow of information and materials is presented. Further, modeling and simulation projects funded by the Exploration initiative to understand the NASA Exploration Supply Chain are explained. Key concepts and their purpose, including the Enterprise, Locations, Physical and Organizational Functional Units, Products, and Resources, are explained. It is shown that the art, science and perspective of Supply Chain Management is not only applicable to such a government & contractor operation, it is also an invaluable approach for understanding, focusing improvement and growth. It is shown that such commercial practice applies to Human Space Flight and is invaluable towards one day creating routine, affordable access to and from space

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

In 2011, NASA released a report assessing the market for commercial crew and cargo services to low Earth orbit (LEO). The report stated that NASA had spent a few hundred million dollars in the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program on the portion related to the development of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Yet a NASA cost model predicted the cost would have been significantly more with a non-commercial cost-plus contracting approach. By 2016 a NASA request for information stated it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", as "critical to free resources for reinvestment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." This work joins the previous two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for "...other required deep space exploration capabilities." These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of "costed baseball cards", adding cost estimates to NASA's space systems "baseball cards." We show some potential costs, including analysis, the basis of estimates, data sources and caveats to address a critical question - based on initial assessment, are significant agency resources justified for more detailed analysis and due diligence to understand and invest in public private partnerships for human deep space exploration systems? The cost analysis spans commercial to cost-plus contracting approaches, for smaller elements vs. larger, with some variation for lunar or Mars. By extension, we delve briefly into the potentially much broader significance of the individual cost estimates if taken together as a NASA investment portfolio where public private partnership are stitched together for deep space exploration. How might multiple improvements in individual systems add up to NASA human deep space exploration achievements, realistically, affordably, sustainably, in a relevant timeframe

A Quality Function Deployment Method Applied to Highly Reusable Space Transportation

This paper will describe a Quality Function Deployment (QFD) currently in work the goal of which is to add definition and insight to the development of long term Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST). The objective here is twofold. First, to describe the process, the actual QFD experience as applies to the HRST study. Second, to describe the preliminary results of this process, in particular the assessment of possible directions for future pursuit such as promising candidate technologies or approaches that may finally open the space frontier. The iterative and synergistic nature of QFD provides opportunities in the process for the discovery of what is key in so far as it is useful, what is not, and what is merely true. Key observations on the QFD process will be presented. The importance of a customer definition as well as the similarity of the process of developing a technology portfolio to product development will be shown. Also, the relation of identified cost and operating drivers to future space vehicle designs that are robust to an uncertain future will be discussed. The results in particular of this HRST evaluation will be preliminary given the somewhat long term (or perhaps not?) nature of the task being considered

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors

In-Space Propulsion Assessment Processes and Criteria for Affordable Systems

In a world of high launch costs to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), and of costs nearly twice as high to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO), it is clear that processes and criteria are required which will surface the path to greater affordability. Further, with propulsion systems making up a major part of the systems placed into multiple orbits, or beyond, it is clear that addressing propulsion systems for in-space propulsion (ISP) is a key part to breaking the barriers to affordable systems. While multitudes of Earth to Orbit transportation system efforts focus on reduced costs, the often neglected costs and related interactions of the in-space system equally require improvements that will enable broad end-to end customer affordability